How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2953 | 48.1% | -4.5% | -133.4 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 288 | 53.8% | +5.2% | +14.9 |
| 3-5% EV | 681 | 48.8% | -4.6% | -31.3 |
| 5-8% EV | 614 | 49.8% | -1.5% | -9.0 |
| 8-12% EV | 137 | 43.1% | -13.4% | -18.4 |
| 12%+ EV | 1233 | 46.1% | -7.3% | -89.5 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury |
Natasha Mack
Player Points · Under
|
8.5 | -102 | +2.4% | 12.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Indiana Fever |
Aliyah Boston
Player Rebounds · Under
|
7.5 | +100 | +4.7% | 16.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings |
Dallas Wings
Spread (Q1)
|
-1.5 | +102 | +19.1% | 10.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Dallas Wings |
Arike Ogunbowale
Player Points · Under
|
17.5 | +101 | +2.0% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.01 |
| WNBA Phoenix Mercury @ Atlanta Dream |
Total Points (Q1)
Over
|
44.5 | -105 | +16.8% | 38.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Total Points (Q1)
Over
|
46.5 | +100 | +17.8% | 45.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx |
Minnesota Lynx
Spread (1st Half)
|
-3.5 | -105 | +18.8% | 21.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Chicago Sky |
Kamilla Cardoso
Player Points · Over
|
14.5 | +102 | +6.4% | 12.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics |
Chicago Sky
Moneyline (Q2)
|
— | -110 | +16.3% | -6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Total Points (Q3)
Under
|
36.5 | -110 | +15.5% | 53.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Dearica Hamby
Player P+R+A · Under
|
27.5 | -105 | +2.7% | 25.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings |
Jessica Shepard
Player Rebounds · Under
|
8.5 | +106 | +4.5% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Maddy Siegrist
Player Points · Under
|
9.5 | -106 | +2.5% | 16.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Portland Fire |
Luisa Geiselsoder
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | +130 | +16.2% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Portland Fire |
Breanna Stewart
Player P+R+A · Under
|
34.5 | -106 | +2.0% | 30.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury |
Alyssa Thomas
Player Assists · Under
|
9.5 | +100 | +2.6% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Chicago Sky |
Minnesota Lynx
Spread
|
3.5 | -105 | +4.7% | 10.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury |
Los Angeles Sparks
Spread (Q4)
|
1.5 | +100 | +16.9% | -3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun |
Los Angeles Sparks
Spread (Q4)
|
0.5 | -104 | +18.8% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings |
Dallas Wings
Spread
|
-2.0 | -103 | +6.5% | -5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.