How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 1641 | 43.8% | -12.7% | -208.2 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 231 | 46.3% | -9.8% | -22.6 |
| 3-5% EV | 170 | 47.6% | -8.3% | -14.1 |
| 5-8% EV | 680 | 49.4% | -4.2% | -28.8 |
| 8-12% EV | 220 | 39.1% | -22.2% | -48.8 |
| 12%+ EV | 340 | 31.8% | -27.6% | -93.8 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream |
Gabby Williams
Player Rebounds+Assists · Over
|
6.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Washington Mystics |
Totals
Over
|
166.0 | -108 | +5.9% | 131.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx |
Bridget Carleton
Player Assists · Over
|
2.5 | +111 | +5.5% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.11 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces |
Jackie Young
Player Assists · Over
|
6.5 | +114 | +7.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Allisha Gray
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | -102 | +3.1% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces |
Lexie Hull
Player Points · Under
|
8.5 | -110 | +7.6% | 10.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever |
Totals
Over
|
177.0 | -110 | +5.0% | 211.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury |
Connecticut Sun
Moneyline (Q3)
|
— | +128 | +14.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.28 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty |
Olivia Miles
Player Points · Under
|
18.5 | +102 | +3.2% | 14.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces |
Total Points (Q2)
Over
|
39.5 | +100 | +10.0% | 36.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm |
Totals
Over
|
175.5 | +100 | +10.0% | 207.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream |
Angel Reese
Player Points · Over
|
14.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 17.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Indiana Fever |
Totals
Over
|
166.5 | -104 | +7.9% | 163.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun |
Arike Ogunbowale
Player Assists · Over
|
2.5 | +124 | +12.8% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun |
Azzi Fudd
Player Assists · Over
|
1.5 | -165 | +5.4% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.61 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury |
Natisha Hiedeman
Player Points+Assists · Over
|
19.5 | -118 | +4.0% | 15.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Chicago Sky @ Dallas Wings |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
87.5 | -105 | +7.4% | 86.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings |
Dallas Wings
Team Totals · Over
|
84.5 | -117 | +2.0% | 98.0 | HIT | +0.85 |
| WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx |
Totals
Over
|
169.5 | -105 | +7.4% | 179.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Atlanta Dream |
Los Angeles Sparks
Moneyline (Q4)
|
— | +130 | +15.0% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.