All MLB NFL NCAAF WNBA

How the model has actually performed

Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.

1257

Bets settled

37.8%

Hit rate

-25.1%

ROI (units / bet)

-314.8

Total profit (units)

1.98

Avg decimal odds

392,796 predictions settled · 62.1% hit rate · all-time since April 2026

Every prediction the model has ever graded, across all sports and every confidence level, wins and losses both. The stats above are the stricter betting view: last 30 days, 2%+ EV picks only, profit computed at the best available odds.

By sport

Sport	Bets	Hit rate	ROI	Profit (units)
WNBA	1257	37.8%	-25.1%	-314.8

By predicted EV at capture

Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.

EV bucket	Bets	Hit rate	ROI	Profit (units)
2-3% EV	197	40.1%	-20.8%	-41.1
3-5% EV	210	38.6%	-24.4%	-51.2
5-8% EV	573	36.5%	-29.2%	-167.1
8-12% EV	170	37.6%	-23.9%	-40.6
12%+ EV	107	39.2%	-13.9%	-14.9

Cumulative profit (last 30 days)

Sample of settled picks

A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.

Game	Pick	Line	Odds	EV	Actual	Result	+/-
WNBA Portland Fire @ Dallas Wings	Portland Fire Team Totals · Over	83.5	-110	+5.0%	78.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings	Saniya Rivers Player Rebounds+Assists · Over	6.5	+110	+3.0%	7.0	HIT	+1.10
WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings	Connecticut Sun Team Totals · Over	74.5	-112	+4.1%	71.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics	Shakira Austin Player Points · Over	19.5	+110	+5.0%	11.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings	Totals Over	165.0	-105	+7.4%	168.0	HIT	+0.95
WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury	Alyssa Thomas Player Points · Over	17.5	+107	+3.5%	4.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun	Total Points (Q2) Over	41.5	-105	+4.4%	39.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics	Chance Gray Player Points · Over	4.5	+115	+4.5%	0.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty	Cameron Brink Player Points · Over	9.5	+105	+2.5%	9.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun	Totals Over	171.5	-103	+8.4%	162.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury	Carla Leite Player Rebounds · Over	2.5	+105	+2.5%	1.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo	Aliyah Boston Player Rebounds+Assists · Over	12.5	+108	+2.4%	9.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Los Angeles Sparks	Total Points (Q2) Over	43.5	-105	+4.4%	26.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Dallas Wings @ Indiana Fever	Total Points (1st Half) Over	91.5	-115	+2.8%	72.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Indiana Fever @ Toronto Tempo	Aneesah Morrow Player Rebounds · Over	6.5	+110	+7.1%	16.0	HIT	+1.10
WNBA Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings	Kelsey Mitchell Player Points · Over	24.5	+105	+2.5%	37.0	HIT	+1.05
WNBA Portland Fire @ Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream Spread	-14.5	+108	+4.0%	-18.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries	Gabby Williams Player P+R+A · Under	18.5	+116	+14.3%	33.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Portland Fire @ Toronto Tempo	Totals Over	186.5	+125	+18.9%	161.0	MISS	-1.00
WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky	Totals Over	163.0	-108	+5.9%	143.0	MISS	-1.00

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Methodology

Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.

1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.

Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.