How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
5583
Bets settled
49.4%
Hit rate
-2.7%
ROI (units / bet)
-151.7
Total profit (units)
2.02
Avg decimal odds
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 3799 | 52.1% | +1.8% | +70.2 |
| WNBA | 1641 | 43.8% | -12.7% | -208.2 |
| WC | 114 | 43.0% | -5.2% | -5.9 |
| SOCCER | 27 | 33.3% | -29.2% | -7.9 |
| UFC | 2 | 50.0% | +2.5% | +0.1 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1286 | 51.2% | -2.1% | -27.2 |
| 3-5% EV | 1244 | 53.5% | +3.0% | +37.7 |
| 5-8% EV | 1366 | 50.4% | -1.6% | -21.9 |
| 8-12% EV | 564 | 47.0% | -7.0% | -39.4 |
| 12%+ EV | 1123 | 42.8% | -9.0% | -100.8 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Totals
Over
|
185.0 | -103 | +8.4% | 198.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Michaela Onyenwere
Player Points · Over
|
11.5 | +107 | +3.5% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Washington Mystics
Moneyline
|
— | -125 | +15.6% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.80 |
| MLB Athletics @ Detroit Tigers |
Josh Kuroda-Grauer
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | -102 | +3.1% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies |
Miami Marlins
Team Totals · Under
|
8.5 | +110 | +48.3% | 10.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER San Diego FC @ Colorado Rapids |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Senegal @ Belgium |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
| SOCCER Seattle Sounders FC @ Austin FC |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +112 | +6.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.12 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves |
Francisco Alvarez
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +150 | +31.2% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs |
Totals
Under
|
15.5 | +110 | +7.3% | 26.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Phoenix Mercury |
Phoenix Mercury
Team Totals · Over
|
85.5 | -115 | +2.8% | 89.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Erica Wheeler
Player Assists · Over
|
5.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 7.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| SOCCER Atlanta United FC @ New England Revolution |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +122 | +11.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.22 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Seattle Storm |
Flau'jae Johnson
Player Rebounds+Assists · Over
|
7.5 | +100 | +2.4% | 15.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WC Argentina @ Jordan |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +116 | +13.7% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.16 |
| UFC Sam Patterson @ Santiago Ponzinibbio |
Totals
Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm |
Totals
Over
|
174.5 | -105 | +7.4% | 207.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| UFC Adrian Yanez @ Cody Garbrandt |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins |
Otto Lopez
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -120 | +3.2% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Austria @ Algeria |
Total Points (1st Half)
Under
|
0.5 | +106 | +17.0% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays |
Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +105 | +6.3% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx |
Olivia Miles
Player Points · Under
|
19.5 | +107 | +4.6% | 33.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Seattle Storm |
Awa Fam
Player Points · Over
|
11.5 | +103 | +2.0% | 21.0 | HIT | +1.03 |
| WC England @ Panama |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.25 | -101 | +15.2% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Hurston Waldrep
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
3.5 | +120 | +65.1% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Minnesota United FC @ Sporting Kansas City |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees |
Totals
Over
|
10.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 15.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| SOCCER FC Dallas @ San Diego FC |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Toronto Tempo |
Totals
Over
|
185.5 | -105 | +7.4% | 165.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets |
New York Mets
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 12.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs |
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Batter Runs Scored · Over
|
0.5 | -120 | +4.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Garrett Mitchell
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Norway @ Ivory Coast |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +100 | +4.4% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings |
Dallas Wings
Team Totals · Over
|
84.5 | -117 | +2.0% | 98.0 | HIT | +0.85 |
| SOCCER LA Galaxy @ San Jose Earthquakes |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +109 | +4.5% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox |
Boston Red Sox
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| WC Austria @ Spain |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
0.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| WC Norway @ Brazil |
Total Points (1st Half)
Under
|
1.0 | -106 | +11.4% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics |
Shakira Austin
Player Rebounds · Over
|
8.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 11.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| WC France @ Paraguay |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Austria @ Algeria |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
2.0 | +112 | +7.1% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.12 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants |
Toronto Blue Jays
Team Totals · Under
|
8.5 | +100 | +29.1% | 9.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Inter Miami CF @ CF Montreal |
Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Chicago Cubs
Moneyline
|
— | +106 | +3.0% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty |
New York Liberty
Team Totals · Over
|
92.5 | -106 | +6.9% | 77.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles |
Chicago Cubs
Moneyline
|
— | +110 | +5.0% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians |
Cleveland Guardians
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +114 | +7.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.14 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm |
Carla Leite
Player Assists · Under
|
6.5 | -105 | +8.9% | 4.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Allisha Gray
Player Assists · Under
|
2.5 | +146 | +23.8% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Portugal @ Colombia |
Both Teams to Score
No
|
— | +100 | +4.4% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers |
Casey Mize
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
4.5 | +100 | +11.3% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Nashville SC @ Orlando City SC |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +130 | +15.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Totals
Over
|
175.0 | -108 | +5.9% | 146.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
6.5 | +122 | +13.4% | 7.0 | HIT | +1.22 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Athletics |
Jonah Heim
Batter Singles · Over
|
0.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
86.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 86.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Morocco @ Canada |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.0 | +138 | +19.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Naz Hillmon
Player Points · Over
|
7.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury |
Totals
Over
|
165.0 | -108 | +5.9% | 135.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Portland Fire |
Sarah Ashlee Barker
Player Assists · Over
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| SOCCER Toronto FC @ CF Montreal |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +112 | +6.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox |
Dylan Crews
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | +130 | +15.4% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.