"All" currently excludes WNBA — we've paused those picks. Tap the pill above for that sport's complete record, wins and losses included.
How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
4458
Bets settled
51.5%
Hit rate
+0.6%
ROI (units / bet)
+28.5
Total profit (units)
1.97
Avg decimal odds
392,796 predictions settled
·
62.1% hit rate
·
all-time since April 2026
Every prediction the model has ever graded, across all sports and
every confidence level, wins and losses both. The stats above are
the stricter betting view: last 30 days,
2%+ EV picks only, profit computed
at the best available odds.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 4361 | 51.4% | +0.4% | +18.4 |
| NFL | 56 | 62.5% | +24.5% | +13.7 |
| NCAAF | 41 | 46.3% | -8.9% | -3.6 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1628 | 52.2% | -1.8% | -29.2 |
| 3-5% EV | 1692 | 50.7% | -1.4% | -24.1 |
| 5-8% EV | 787 | 50.4% | +2.8% | +22.0 |
| 8-12% EV | 221 | 53.4% | +13.4% | +29.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 130 | 56.1% | +23.2% | +30.2 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 21.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| MLB Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 7.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards · Over
|
24.5 | -113 | +7.4% | 13.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions |
Detroit Lions
Spread
|
-3.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| NFL Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars |
Totals
Over
|
36.0 | -107 | +2.9% | 51.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals |
Atlanta Braves
Spread
|
-1.5 | +110 | +5.0% | -4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF NC State Wolfpack @ Virginia Cavaliers |
Beau Pribula
Rushing Yards · Over
|
27.5 | -110 | +14.5% | 110.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NFL Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns |
Buffalo Bills
Moneyline
|
— | +105 | +2.5% | 24.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NCAAF Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers |
Sam Leavitt
Rushing Yards · Over
|
18.5 | -112 | +5.9% | 113.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 7.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Totals
Over
|
37.5 | -115 | +3.8% | 58.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards · Under
|
9.5 | -107 | +16.3% | 51.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays |
Seattle Mariners
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners |
Chicago Cubs
Moneyline
|
— | +110 | +5.0% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 14.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Benjamin Hall
Rushing Yards · Under
|
48.5 | -110 | +11.3% | 36.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
56.5 | -109 | +3.4% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers |
Dylan Crews
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | -101 | +5.2% | 2.0 | HIT | +0.99 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Ed Small
Receiving Yards · Under
|
42.5 | +120 | +15.2% | 65.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles |
Yannick Smith
Receiving Yards · Over
|
30.5 | -114 | +7.9% | 107.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| NCAAF Wisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
Eugene Hilton Jr.
Receiving Yards · Under
|
29.5 | -112 | +11.6% | 31.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals |
Salvador Perez
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -119 | +4.2% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.84 |
| NCAAF Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers |
Clemson Tigers
Spread
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -41.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Billy Edwards Jr.
Rushing Yards · Under
|
10.5 | -114 | +14.2% | -4.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| NFL New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
New York Jets
Moneyline
|
— | +120 | +10.0% | 17.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| MLB New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles |
Dylan Beavers
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -119 | +3.2% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.84 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards · Under
|
26.5 | -110 | +4.4% | 47.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros |
Sam Antonacci
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
|
1.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
57.5 | -110 | +10.2% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF San Jose State Spartans @ Eastern Michigan Eagles |
San Jose State Spartans
Moneyline
|
— | +108 | +4.0% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| NCAAF Rhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls |
Rhode Island Rams
Spread
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -24.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Athletics @ Kansas City Royals |
Henry Bolte
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | -102 | +3.0% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Julian Love
Tackles + Assists · Over
|
4.5 | -114 | +2.6% | 6.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| NFL Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints |
Totals
Under
|
35.5 | -110 | +4.2% | 44.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans |
Houston Texans
Spread
|
-1.5 | +110 | +4.0% | -2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving Yards · Over
|
23.5 | -112 | +9.6% | 44.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
George Holani
Receiving Yards · Under
|
11.5 | -110 | +3.5% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards · Over
|
24.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 47.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards · Over
|
8.5 | -111 | +22.5% | 51.0 | HIT | +0.90 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins |
Alex Bregman
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | +104 | +2.1% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers |
Totals
Under
|
58.5 | -109 | +4.5% | 55.0 | HIT | +0.92 |
| NCAAF Boston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats |
Totals
Under
|
54.5 | -113 | +4.0% | 49.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| MLB Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants |
Drew Gilbert
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -137 | +2.8% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF South Dakota State Jackrabbits @ Northwestern Wildcats |
Northwestern Wildcats
Spread
|
-14.0 | +104 | +2.0% | 16.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Memphis Tigers @ UNLV Rebels |
Taeshaun Lyons
Receiving Yards · Over
|
41.5 | +102 | +3.1% | 23.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers |
Totals
Over
|
7.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Seattle Seahawks
Team Totals · Over
|
24.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 13.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels |
Totals
Under
|
56.5 | -110 | +2.8% | 79.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees |
Cam Schlittler
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
6.5 | +104 | +2.9% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Fresno State Bulldogs @ USC Trojans |
Fresno State Bulldogs
Spread
|
22.0 | +108 | +4.0% | -39.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
George Holani
Rushing Yards · Over
|
18.5 | -115 | +2.7% | 29.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| NCAAF Western Michigan Broncos @ Michigan Wolverines |
Bryce Underwood
Rushing Yards · Over
|
34.5 | +100 | +4.9% | 47.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| MLB Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Ivan Herrera
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +106 | +3.1% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Jadarian Price
Receiving Yards · Over
|
7.5 | -112 | +14.3% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins |
Jarren Duran
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | -120 | +2.7% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders |
San Francisco 49ers
Moneyline
|
— | +108 | +4.0% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| NCAAF East Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide |
Tyler Johnson
Receiving Yards · Under
|
21.5 | -112 | +2.1% | 68.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears |
Totals
Over
|
40.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 44.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.