How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
12060
Bets settled
50.3%
Hit rate
-0.1%
ROI (units / bet)
-6.8
Total profit (units)
2.05
Avg decimal odds
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 7336 | 51.5% | +2.1% | +154.3 |
| WNBA | 2953 | 48.1% | -4.5% | -133.4 |
| NBA | 1703 | 49.6% | -1.2% | -20.1 |
| NHL | 58 | 44.8% | -9.0% | -5.2 |
| UFC | 10 | 40.0% | -23.5% | -2.4 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1846 | 51.9% | -1.9% | -35.0 |
| 3-5% EV | 2790 | 50.1% | -3.4% | -95.3 |
| 5-8% EV | 1993 | 51.7% | -0.3% | -5.7 |
| 8-12% EV | 1126 | 54.5% | +3.3% | +37.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 4305 | 48.0% | +2.1% | +91.7 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Karl-Anthony Towns
Player Rebounds · Under
|
10.5 | +108 | +13.6% | 13.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Connecticut Sun |
Chennedy Carter
Player Points · Over
|
13.5 | +100 | +4.4% | 18.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks |
Landry Shamet
Player Steals · Under
|
0.5 | -106 | +5.1% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| UFC Christian Edwards @ Modestas Bukauskas |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | -102 | +2.1% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces |
Las Vegas Aces
Spread
|
-14.5 | -110 | +3.0% | 10.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers |
Donovan Walton
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | +100 | +3.9% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Connecticut Sun |
Los Angeles Sparks
Spread
|
-4.5 | +102 | +8.7% | -3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers |
New York Knicks
Spread
|
8.5 | +102 | +2.1% | 13.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
New York Knicks
Spread
|
15.5 | +100 | +4.0% | 16.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Washington Mystics @ Dallas Wings |
Jessica Shepard
Player Points · Over
|
9.5 | +100 | +3.5% | 12.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky |
Aneesah Morrow
Player Points · Under
|
13.5 | +102 | +2.8% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +135 | +42.3% | 9.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets |
Bo Bichette
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +115 | +13.2% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Juan Diaz @ Malcolm Wellmaker |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +125 | +14.8% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Player Points · Over
|
28.5 | -110 | +2.3% | 24.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Jakub Dobes
Player Total Saves · Over
|
28.5 | -108 | +2.2% | 26.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread (Q4)
|
1.5 | -105 | +14.5% | 4.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners |
Chicago White Sox
Team Totals · Over
|
0.5 | +126 | +84.6% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.26 |
| WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Chicago Sky |
Toronto Tempo
Spread
|
-5.0 | -103 | +5.5% | 7.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Totals
Under
|
163.5 | -110 | +2.4% | 165.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros |
Christian Yelich
Batter Runs Scored · Over
|
0.5 | +105 | +3.3% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Yankees @ New York Mets |
Bo Bichette
Batter Hits · Under
|
1.5 | -137 | +16.7% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.73 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox |
Chicago Cubs
Team Totals · Over
|
2.5 | +126 | +53.4% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.26 |
| NHL Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights |
Mitch Marner
Player Shots on Goal · Over
|
1.5 | -137 | +7.0% | 10.0 | HIT | +0.73 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Vegas Golden Knights
Team Totals · Under
|
2.5 | +100 | +3.9% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury |
Total Points (1st Half)
Under
|
85.5 | -108 | +16.7% | 86.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Daniel Santos @ Dooho Choi |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +108 | +8.8% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Spread (Q2)
|
-2.5 | -105 | +12.5% | 11.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| UFC Chelsea Chandler @ Priscila Cachoeira |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +105 | +5.1% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Team Totals · Over
|
108.5 | -105 | +2.5% | 93.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Jacqueline Cavalcanti @ Ketlen Vieira |
Ketlen Vieira
Moneyline
|
— | -238 | +2.3% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.42 |
| WNBA Washington Mystics @ Dallas Wings |
Sonia Citron
Player Points · Over
|
18.5 | +107 | +5.8% | 7.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres |
Buffalo Sabres
Spread
|
3.5 | +110 | +9.4% | -3.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins |
Luke Keaschall
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +110 | +25.9% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Carter Hart
Player Total Saves · Under
|
29.5 | +100 | +4.3% | 30.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Chicago Sky |
Kayla McBride
Player Rebounds · Under
|
3.5 | -103 | +2.4% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty |
Veronica Burton
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | +107 | +5.5% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.07 |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread (Q1)
|
1.0 | -105 | +14.5% | 9.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Portland Fire |
Total Points (Q1)
Under
|
42.5 | -110 | +14.3% | 34.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| MLB Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins |
Kody Clemens
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +188 | +62.6% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Totals
Over
|
221.5 | -103 | +3.4% | 237.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
105.5 | -108 | +11.7% | 102.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners |
Totals
Over
|
7.5 | +103 | +2.6% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.03 |
| UFC Yuneisy Duben @ Jeisla Chaves |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.8% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Atlanta Dream |
Alanna Smith
Player Points · Under
|
7.5 | -130 | +17.6% | 2.0 | HIT | +0.77 |
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Totals
Over
|
8.0 | +103 | +3.8% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins |
Totals
Over
|
10.5 | +116 | +8.1% | 12.0 | HIT | +1.16 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Totals
Over
|
7.0 | -115 | +11.5% | 5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Khaos Williams @ Nikolay Veretennikov |
Nikolay Veretennikov
Moneyline
|
— | +108 | +6.8% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights |
William Karlsson
Player Shots on Goal · Under
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.9% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Player Points · Over
|
17.5 | -105 | +4.0% | 24.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons |
Evan Mobley
Player Assists · Under
|
7.5 | -220 | +26.9% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels |
Los Angeles Angels
Spread
|
-3.5 | +120 | +13.3% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Chicago Sky |
Total Points (Q2)
Over
|
41.5 | -104 | +16.7% | 37.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics |
Los Angeles Sparks
Spread (1st Half)
|
1.0 | -105 | +17.2% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| UFC Tom Nolan @ Fares Ziam |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +102 | +2.6% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Pavel Dorofeyev
Player Shots on Goal · Over
|
2.5 | -102 | +3.7% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Josh Manson
Player Shots on Goal · Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +4.0% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins |
Totals
Over
|
7.5 | +104 | +3.5% | 10.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Carolina Hurricanes
Team Totals · Under
|
4.5 | -130 | +48.5% | 2.0 | HIT | +0.77 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Jalen Williams
Player Points · Over
|
20.5 | +100 | +2.7% | 26.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Montréal Canadiens
Team Totals · Over
|
2.5 | +115 | +8.5% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.15 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Montréal Canadiens
Team Totals · Over
|
0.5 | +110 | +9.1% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | -122 | +12.8% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Buffalo Sabres @ Montréal Canadiens |
Totals
Over
|
6.5 | +115 | +7.5% | 11.0 | HIT | +1.15 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers |
Totals
Over
|
230.0 | -117 | +3.2% | 229.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights |
Carter Hart
Player Total Saves · Over
|
28.5 | -102 | +2.2% | 20.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros |
Spencer Horwitz
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +102 | +5.6% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| UFC Carlston Harris @ Jake Matthews |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +120 | +10.2% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Josh Hart
Player Steals · Under
|
1.5 | -159 | +3.4% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.63 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Josh Hart
Player Rebounds · Over
|
4.5 | -124 | +38.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Totals
Under
|
8.5 | -102 | +3.4% | 14.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Golden State Valkyries |
Indiana Fever
Spread
|
1.5 | +100 | +6.8% | -2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Connecticut Sun |
Totals
Under
|
171.0 | -108 | +4.6% | 167.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Spread
|
3.5 | +100 | +3.2% | 31.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons |
Cade Cunningham
Player Rebounds · Over
|
3.5 | -110 | +17.3% | 7.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Carolina Hurricanes
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +100 | +2.2% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -147 | +3.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Christian Edwards @ Modestas Bukauskas |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | -102 | +2.7% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty |
Alyssa Thomas
Player Assists · Over
|
9.5 | +105 | +3.8% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
Freddie Freeman
Batter Runs Scored · Under
|
0.5 | +105 | +6.2% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics |
Cameron Brink
Player Points · Over
|
9.5 | -102 | +2.5% | 16.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Cameron Brink
Player Rebounds · Over
|
4.5 | +101 | +2.1% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.01 |
| NHL Carolina Hurricanes @ Montréal Canadiens |
Totals
Under
|
5.5 | +102 | +3.2% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox |
Riley Greene
Batter Runs Scored · Under
|
0.5 | -116 | +2.4% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.86 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies |
Totals
Under
|
10.5 | -103 | +2.7% | 16.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Jalen Brunson
Player Points · Under
|
17.5 | -112 | +6.8% | 19.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.