How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 56 | 62.5% | +24.5% | +13.7 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 26 | 57.7% | +15.6% | +4.1 |
| 3-5% EV | 15 | 60.0% | +18.3% | +2.7 |
| 5-8% EV | 10 | 80.0% | +59.1% | +5.9 |
| 8-12% EV | 2 | 100.0% | +104.6% | +2.1 |
| 12%+ EV | 3 | 33.3% | -36.6% | -1.1 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Totals
Over
|
33.5 | -110 | +4.4% | 18.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Julian Love
Tackles + Assists · Over
|
4.5 | -114 | +2.6% | 6.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| NFL Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills |
Carolina Panthers
Moneyline
|
— | +105 | +2.5% | -15.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions |
Detroit Lions
Spread
|
-1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears |
Totals
Over
|
40.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 44.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards · Over
|
24.5 | -113 | +7.4% | 13.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
George Holani
Receiving Yards · Under
|
11.5 | -110 | +3.5% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards · Under
|
9.5 | -107 | +16.3% | 51.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
George Holani
Rushing Yards · Over
|
18.5 | -115 | +2.7% | 29.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| NFL Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans |
Chicago Bears
Spread
|
-1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 9.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills |
Buffalo Bills
Spread
|
-1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 15.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Jadarian Price
Receiving Yards · Under
|
8.5 | -103 | +7.8% | 6.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards · Under
|
26.5 | -110 | +4.4% | 47.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards · Over
|
8.5 | -111 | +22.5% | 51.0 | HIT | +0.90 |
| NFL Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Totals
Under
|
36.5 | -103 | +3.3% | 18.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards · Over
|
24.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 47.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NFL New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
Totals
Under
|
38.5 | -107 | +4.8% | 17.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving Yards · Over
|
23.5 | -112 | +9.6% | 44.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| NFL New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins |
Totals
Over
|
37.0 | -102 | +2.8% | 29.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos |
Totals
Over
|
38.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 40.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.