How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF | 41 | 46.3% | -8.9% | -3.6 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 11 | 9.1% | -81.5% | -9.0 |
| 3-5% EV | 15 | 53.3% | +4.3% | +0.7 |
| 5-8% EV | 4 | 75.0% | +42.4% | +1.7 |
| 8-12% EV | 7 | 57.1% | +13.5% | +0.9 |
| 12%+ EV | 4 | 75.0% | +50.9% | +2.0 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF NC State Wolfpack @ Virginia Cavaliers |
Beau Pribula
Rushing Yards · Over
|
27.5 | -110 | +14.5% | 110.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NCAAF Fresno State Bulldogs @ USC Trojans |
Fresno State Bulldogs
Spread
|
22.0 | +108 | +4.0% | -39.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels |
Kewan Lacy
Receiving Yards · Under
|
13.5 | -110 | +10.6% | 19.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Jeremy Scott
Receiving Yards · Under
|
44.5 | -112 | +3.5% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Trech Kekahuna
Receiving Yards · Under
|
28.5 | -110 | +2.0% | 38.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Rhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls |
Rhode Island Rams
Spread
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -24.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Utah Tech Trailblazers @ BYU Cougars |
Totals
Over
|
55.5 | -108 | +6.9% | 70.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Billy Edwards Jr.
Rushing Yards · Under
|
10.5 | -114 | +14.2% | -4.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
54.5 | -105 | +2.1% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks |
Ben Ford
Receiving Yards · Over
|
26.5 | -114 | +4.0% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels |
Totals
Under
|
56.5 | -110 | +2.8% | 79.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks |
Evan Stewart
Receptions · Over
|
3.5 | +125 | +19.5% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.25 |
| NCAAF Boston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats |
Totals
Under
|
54.5 | -113 | +4.0% | 49.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| NCAAF Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers |
Totals
Under
|
58.5 | -109 | +4.5% | 55.0 | HIT | +0.92 |
| NCAAF Wisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
Eugene Hilton Jr.
Receiving Yards · Under
|
29.5 | -112 | +11.6% | 31.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Oregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars |
Makhi Hughes
Rushing Yards · Over
|
76.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 98.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| NCAAF UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears |
California Golden Bears
Spread
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -21.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
56.5 | -109 | +3.4% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
57.5 | -110 | +10.2% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks |
Evan Stewart
Receptions · Under
|
4.5 | -130 | +4.5% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.