How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 1703 | 49.6% | -1.2% | -20.1 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 226 | 48.7% | -5.6% | -12.6 |
| 3-5% EV | 303 | 51.5% | +0.2% | +0.8 |
| 5-8% EV | 166 | 49.4% | -3.2% | -5.3 |
| 8-12% EV | 252 | 52.8% | +2.9% | +7.2 |
| 12%+ EV | 756 | 48.0% | -1.3% | -10.1 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
Luke Kornet
Player Points · Under
|
3.5 | -150 | +5.1% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread
|
7.5 | -103 | +3.1% | 4.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
San Antonio Spurs
Team Totals · Over
|
119.5 | +105 | +5.6% | 114.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs |
Totals
Over
|
215.5 | +100 | +13.6% | 209.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs |
New York Knicks
Team Totals · Over
|
107.5 | +112 | +10.6% | 105.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Donovan Mitchell
Player Rebounds · Under
|
4.5 | +130 | +49.6% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.30 |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs |
Ayo Dosunmu
Player Rebounds · Over
|
3.5 | +105 | +2.9% | 9.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers |
Karl-Anthony Towns
Player Points · Under
|
23.5 | -105 | +5.4% | 13.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs |
Stephon Castle
Player Assists · Under
|
7.5 | -135 | +4.5% | 6.0 | HIT | +0.74 |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs |
Keldon Johnson
Player Points+Assists · Under
|
9.5 | -105 | +2.2% | 21.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Jalen Brunson
Player Rebounds+Assists · Over
|
8.5 | -110 | +8.4% | 11.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Team Totals · Over
|
109.5 | +115 | +12.9% | 103.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Spread (1st Half)
|
3.5 | -108 | +13.5% | 2.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs |
Stephon Castle
Player Assists · Over
|
6.5 | -105 | +4.8% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
Jared McCain
Player Points · Over
|
9.5 | +102 | +2.3% | 24.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves |
Total Points (Q3)
Over
|
54.5 | -105 | +11.5% | 59.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread (Q4)
|
1.5 | +110 | +15.0% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Jarrett Allen
Player Points · Over
|
10.5 | -114 | +6.2% | 10.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
San Antonio Spurs
Team Totals · Over
|
105.5 | -108 | +10.6% | 114.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread
|
2.0 | -102 | +3.8% | -15.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.