How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 7336 | 51.5% | +2.1% | +154.3 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1318 | 52.2% | -2.6% | -34.5 |
| 3-5% EV | 1796 | 50.4% | -3.5% | -62.8 |
| 5-8% EV | 1197 | 53.1% | +0.9% | +11.0 |
| 8-12% EV | 726 | 57.4% | +6.8% | +49.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 2299 | 49.1% | +8.3% | +191.0 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels |
Carlos Cortes
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | -120 | +7.4% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.83 |
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers |
Salvador Perez
Batter RBIs · Under
|
0.5 | -310 | +4.0% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.32 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees |
New York Yankees
Team Totals · Over
|
2.5 | +120 | +92.3% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Yankees @ New York Mets |
Marcus Semien
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | -105 | +14.8% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
Totals
Over
|
9.0 | -101 | +2.6% | 7.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels |
Jorge Soler
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +400 | +152.9% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | -101 | +2.8% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox |
Kyle Schwarber
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
1.5 | +143 | +40.9% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.43 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals |
St. Louis Cardinals
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies |
Evan Carter
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
|
1.5 | +111 | +5.7% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees |
Toronto Blue Jays
Spread
|
2.5 | +120 | +10.6% | -1.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians |
Chase DeLauter
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
5.5 | -275 | +16.4% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.36 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles |
George Springer
Batter Runs Scored · Over
|
0.5 | +105 | +3.9% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros |
Houston Astros
Moneyline
|
— | -101 | +25.5% | -5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians |
Totals
Under
|
9.0 | +100 | +3.8% | 13.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Athletics @ Chicago Cubs |
Carlos Cortes
Batter Runs Scored · Under
|
0.5 | -128 | +3.2% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs |
Chicago Cubs
Spread
|
3.5 | +110 | +8.8% | -6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays |
Bryan Reynolds
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -139 | +2.5% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.72 |
| MLB Seattle Mariners @ Athletics |
Athletics
Team Totals · Over
|
1.5 | +135 | +82.9% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals |
Boston Red Sox
Team Totals · Under
|
4.5 | -122 | +37.8% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.82 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.