How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 4376 | 51.5% | +0.6% | +27.3 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1594 | 52.5% | -1.3% | -21.4 |
| 3-5% EV | 1670 | 50.7% | -1.4% | -23.4 |
| 5-8% EV | 776 | 50.1% | +2.2% | +17.4 |
| 8-12% EV | 213 | 52.6% | +12.0% | +25.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 123 | 56.1% | +23.8% | +29.2 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers |
Spencer Torkelson
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -130 | +2.2% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.77 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves |
Austin Riley
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
|
0.5 | -123 | +3.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Jacob Gonzalez
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | -125 | +4.1% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.80 |
| MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Esteury Ruiz
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
0.5 | +111 | +4.7% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.11 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers |
Detroit Tigers
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 11.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros |
Yainer Diaz
Batter Singles · Over
|
0.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies |
Mickey Moniak
Batter Runs Scored · Over
|
0.5 | +120 | +8.0% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers |
Texas Rangers
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +116 | +8.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.16 |
| MLB Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Blaze Jordan
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | +102 | +3.0% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| MLB Athletics @ Texas Rangers |
Texas Rangers
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| MLB Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers |
Nathaniel Lowe
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
|
1.5 | +115 | +7.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox |
Boston Red Sox
Team Totals · Over
|
5.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox |
Lane Thomas
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -120 | +2.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians |
Cleveland Guardians
Spread
|
-1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB San Diego Padres @ New York Mets |
Francisco Lindor
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +106 | +3.3% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Tampa Bay Rays
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 16.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.