How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 3799 | 52.1% | +1.8% | +70.2 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1033 | 52.5% | -0.1% | -1.1 |
| 3-5% EV | 1052 | 54.6% | +5.2% | +54.4 |
| 5-8% EV | 662 | 51.8% | +1.6% | +10.4 |
| 8-12% EV | 327 | 51.1% | +1.4% | +4.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 725 | 49.0% | +0.3% | +1.9 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels |
Los Angeles Angels
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Athletics @ Detroit Tigers |
Colby Thomas
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +135 | +17.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians |
Austin Hedges
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | +101 | +4.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Pittsburgh Pirates
Team Totals · Under
|
5.5 | +100 | +23.5% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers |
Totals
Over
|
7.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 13.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs |
Matthew Boyd
Pitcher Outs · Under
|
15.5 | -110 | +2.3% | 15.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies |
Colorado Rockies
Team Totals · Under
|
5.5 | -115 | +2.1% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins |
Cleveland Guardians
Moneyline
|
— | +110 | +5.0% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Nelson Velazquez
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -120 | +2.8% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs |
Austin Martin
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -141 | +2.2% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.71 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Guardians |
Travis Bazzana
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +135 | +21.3% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves |
Totals
Over
|
13.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 16.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros |
Tampa Bay Rays
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Jesus Luzardo
Pitcher Strikeouts · Under
|
7.5 | -145 | +2.0% | 7.0 | HIT | +0.69 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros |
Spencer Arrighetti
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +5.7% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners |
Los Angeles Angels
Team Totals · Over
|
2.5 | +130 | +15.0% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.30 |
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles |
Lane Thomas
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +100 | +2.0% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles |
Washington Nationals
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.7% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals |
Totals
Over
|
10.5 | -102 | +2.9% | 14.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros |
Yordan Alvarez
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -102 | +3.1% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.