"All" currently excludes WNBA — we've paused those picks. Tap the pill above for that sport's complete record, wins and losses included.
How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
4473
Bets settled
51.6%
Hit rate
+0.8%
ROI (units / bet)
+37.4
Total profit (units)
1.97
Avg decimal odds
392,796 predictions settled
·
62.1% hit rate
·
all-time since April 2026
Every prediction the model has ever graded, across all sports and
every confidence level, wins and losses both. The stats above are
the stricter betting view: last 30 days,
2%+ EV picks only, profit computed
at the best available odds.
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 4376 | 51.5% | +0.6% | +27.3 |
| NFL | 56 | 62.5% | +24.5% | +13.7 |
| NCAAF | 41 | 46.3% | -8.9% | -3.6 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1631 | 52.3% | -1.6% | -26.3 |
| 3-5% EV | 1700 | 50.8% | -1.2% | -20.1 |
| 5-8% EV | 790 | 50.6% | +3.2% | +25.0 |
| 8-12% EV | 222 | 53.1% | +12.9% | +28.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 130 | 56.1% | +23.2% | +30.2 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAF Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers |
Sam Leavitt
Rushing Yards · Over
|
18.5 | -112 | +5.9% | 113.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels |
Ezequiel Duran
Batter Singles · Over
|
0.5 | +106 | +2.4% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Rhamondre Stevenson
Receiving Yards · Over
|
23.5 | -112 | +9.6% | 44.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| MLB Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles |
Baltimore Orioles
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards · Under
|
26.5 | -110 | +4.4% | 47.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Utah Tech Trailblazers @ BYU Cougars |
Totals
Over
|
55.5 | -108 | +6.9% | 70.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NFL Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills |
Buffalo Bills
Spread
|
-1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 15.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions |
Detroit Lions
Spread
|
-3.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| NCAAF Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks |
Jamari Johnson
Receiving Yards · Over
|
46.5 | -108 | +10.1% | 57.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Trech Kekahuna
Receiving Yards · Under
|
28.5 | -110 | +2.0% | 38.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
57.5 | -110 | +10.2% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
AJ Barner
Receiving Yards · Over
|
24.5 | -113 | +7.4% | 13.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros |
Hayden Wesneski
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
4.5 | -119 | +3.2% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.84 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros |
Jose Altuve
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | +107 | +3.0% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.07 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Pittsburgh Pirates
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +112 | +6.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Ed Small
Receiving Yards · Under
|
47.5 | -110 | +2.8% | 65.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
56.5 | -109 | +3.4% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts |
Totals
Under
|
36.5 | -115 | +4.1% | 41.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels |
Totals
Under
|
56.5 | -110 | +2.8% | 79.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles |
Yannick Smith
Receiving Yards · Over
|
30.5 | -114 | +7.9% | 107.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers |
David Hamilton
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -120 | +3.6% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins |
Totals
Over
|
37.0 | -102 | +2.8% | 29.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks |
Evan Stewart
Receptions · Under
|
4.5 | -130 | +4.5% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears |
California Golden Bears
Spread
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -21.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers |
Clemson Tigers
Spread
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -41.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Rhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls |
Rhode Island Rams
Spread
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | -24.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins |
Joe Mack
Batter RBIs · Under
|
0.5 | -250 | +2.1% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Athletics @ Houston Astros |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
George Holani
Rushing Yards · Over
|
18.5 | -115 | +2.7% | 29.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays |
New York Mets
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 10.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards · Under
|
9.5 | -107 | +16.3% | 51.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Bryan Reynolds
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +106 | +3.3% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs |
Kevin Gausman
Pitcher Strikeouts · Under
|
6.5 | -120 | +3.9% | 7.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Wisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
Eugene Hilton Jr.
Receiving Yards · Under
|
29.5 | -112 | +11.6% | 31.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills |
Buffalo Bills
Spread
|
-3.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Julian Love
Tackles + Assists · Over
|
4.5 | -114 | +2.6% | 6.0 | HIT | +0.88 |
| MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
Totals
Over
|
7.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners |
Nico Hoerner
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -167 | +2.4% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.60 |
| MLB San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets |
Jung Hoo Lee
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | -101 | +4.4% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.99 |
| NCAAF Boston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats |
Totals
Under
|
54.5 | -113 | +4.0% | 49.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| NFL Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals |
Arizona Cardinals
Spread
|
-1.0 | +105 | +2.5% | -21.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF San Jose State Spartans @ Eastern Michigan Eagles |
San Jose State Spartans
Moneyline
|
— | +108 | +4.0% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| NFL Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts |
Totals
Over
|
35.0 | -102 | +2.1% | 41.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Jeremy Scott
Receiving Yards · Under
|
44.5 | -112 | +3.5% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.89 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Mack Hollins
Receiving Yards · Over
|
8.5 | -111 | +22.5% | 51.0 | HIT | +0.90 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
George Holani
Receiving Yards · Under
|
11.5 | -110 | +3.5% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| MLB New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres |
San Diego Padres
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| NFL San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers |
Totals
Over
|
37.5 | -115 | +3.8% | 58.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| NFL New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers |
New York Jets
Spread
|
-1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 17.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels |
Wade Meckler
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -159 | +2.4% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.63 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Drake Maye
Rushing Yards · Over
|
24.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 47.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees |
New York Yankees
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +120 | +6.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics |
Tampa Bay Rays
Team Totals · Under
|
8.5 | -245 | +10.7% | 8.0 | HIT | +0.41 |
| NFL Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears |
Totals
Over
|
40.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 44.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NCAAF Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies |
Totals
Under
|
54.5 | -105 | +2.1% | 63.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF Oregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars |
Makhi Hughes
Rushing Yards · Over
|
76.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 98.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks |
Jadarian Price
Receiving Yards · Over
|
7.5 | -112 | +14.3% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NCAAF North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs |
Benjamin Hall
Rushing Yards · Under
|
48.5 | -110 | +11.3% | 36.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| MLB Houston Astros @ New York Mets |
Houston Astros
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.