EdgeBeacon
Sport All MLB NBA WNBA

How the model has actually performed

Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.

5576
Bets settled
49.4%
Hit rate
-2.7%
ROI (units / bet)
-151.0
Total profit (units)
2.02
Avg decimal odds

By sport

Sport Bets Hit rate ROI Profit (units)
MLB 3799 52.1% +1.8% +70.2
WNBA 1641 43.8% -12.7% -208.2
WC 108 43.5% -3.9% -4.2
SOCCER 26 30.8% -34.6% -9.0
UFC 2 50.0% +2.5% +0.1

By predicted EV at capture

Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.

EV bucket Bets Hit rate ROI Profit (units)
2-3% EV 1286 51.2% -2.1% -27.2
3-5% EV 1243 53.5% +3.1% +38.7
5-8% EV 1365 50.4% -1.7% -23.0
8-12% EV 563 46.9% -7.2% -40.6
12%+ EV 1119 42.9% -8.8% -98.9

Cumulative profit (last 30 days)

Sample of settled picks

A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.

Game Pick Line Odds EV Actual Result +/-
WNBA Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty
Azzi Fudd
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
1.5 +114 +7.3% 0.0 MISS -1.00
WC England @ France
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +132 +16.0% 4.0 HIT +1.32
WC Cape Verde @ Argentina
Draw
Moneyline
+650 +559.5% 0.0 HIT +6.50
WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty
Kayla McBride
Player Assists · Over
2.5 +116 +8.0% 1.0 MISS -1.00
WC France @ Paraguay
Totals
Over
3.0 +106 +3.0% 1.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER Nashville SC @ Orlando City SC
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +130 +15.0% 0.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty
Total Points (Q3)
Over
45.5 -102 +8.9% 45.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets
Bo Bichette
Batter Total Bases · Under
1.5 -110 +2.7% 1.0 HIT +0.91
WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun
Paige Bueckers
Player Assists · Over
5.5 +124 +17.0% 7.0 HIT +1.24
WNBA Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks
Totals
Over
182.5 -102 +8.9% 198.0 HIT +0.98
WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics
Shakira Austin
Player Points+Rebounds · Over
22.5 +105 +2.5% 22.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Kyle Higashioka
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
0.5 -123 +2.1% 3.0 HIT +0.81
UFC Sam Patterson @ Santiago Ponzinibbio
Totals
Over
1.5 +105 +2.5% 2.0 HIT +1.05
MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Totals
Under
10.0 -111 +17.5% 9.0 HIT +0.90
WC Austria @ Algeria
Alternate Totals
Over
2.0 +112 +7.1% 6.0 HIT +1.12
WNBA Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury
Total Points (Q4)
Over
43.5 -115 +2.8% 43.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
Alec Bohm
Batter Total Bases · Under
2.5 -155 +6.3% 2.0 HIT +0.65
MLB Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Luis Arraez
Batter Hits · Under
1.5 -164 +4.0% 1.0 HIT +0.61
WNBA Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries
Shakira Austin
Player Rebounds · Over
9.5 +105 +2.5% 15.0 HIT +1.05
MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Cedric Mullins
Batter Singles · Under
0.5 +100 +2.4% 1.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers
Alternate Totals
Over
3.5 +107 +3.5% 3.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
Detroit Tigers
Team Totals · Over
4.5 +110 +5.0% 4.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Team Totals · Over
4.5 +135 +25.2% 6.0 HIT +1.35
UFC Adrian Yanez @ Cody Garbrandt
Totals
Over
2.5 +105 +2.5% 1.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER LA Galaxy @ San Jose Earthquakes
Alternate Totals
Over
3.5 +109 +4.5% 2.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER Colorado Rapids @ St. Louis City SC
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +131 +15.5% 0.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics
Washington Mystics
Team Totals · Over
76.5 +105 +12.8% 49.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics
Allisha Gray
Player Assists · Under
2.5 +146 +23.8% 3.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER Sporting Kansas City @ St. Louis City SC
Totals
Over
3.5 +106 +3.0% 5.0 HIT +1.06
MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
Philadelphia Phillies
Team Totals · Under
5.5 -105 +7.6% 6.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +110 +5.0% 1.0 MISS -1.00
WC Norway @ Ivory Coast
Totals
Over
2.5 +100 +4.9% 3.0 HIT +1.00
MLB Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Team Totals · Over
2.5 +220 +66.6% 1.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks
Courtney Vandersloot
Player Points · Over
9.5 +104 +2.0% 6.0 MISS -1.00
MLB New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Team Totals · Over
2.5 +450 +311.8% 7.0 HIT +4.50
SOCCER Portugal @ Colombia
Both Teams to Score
No
+100 +4.4% 0.0 HIT +1.00
WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream
Team Totals · Over
92.5 -107 +6.4% 76.0 MISS -1.00
WC Croatia @ Portugal
Totals
Under
3.5 -556 +3.1% 3.0 HIT +0.18
WC Austria @ Algeria
Alternate Totals
Over
1.75 +104 +2.6% 6.0 HIT +1.04
WNBA Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks
Totals
Over
178.5 -103 +8.4% 168.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics
Allisha Gray
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
1.5 -102 +3.1% 0.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Randy Arozarena
Batter Total Bases · Over
0.5 +160 +41.2% 3.0 HIT +1.60
MLB Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Totals
Over
13.5 +115 +7.5% 16.0 HIT +1.15
MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Isaac Paredes
Batter Total Bases · Under
4.5 -425 +2.4% 5.0 MISS -1.00
WC Argentina @ England
Draw No Bet
Argentina
+105 +2.5% 1.0 HIT +1.05
WNBA Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx
Totals
Over
174.5 -105 +7.4% 194.0 HIT +0.95
MLB Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
Hao-Yu Lee
Batter Hits · Over
0.5 -123 +2.3% 1.0 HIT +0.81
SOCCER FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +115 +7.5% 1.0 MISS -1.00
MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Ivan Herrera
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
1.5 +100 +2.2% 0.0 HIT +1.00
MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr.
Batter Singles · Under
1.5 -145 +23.2% 1.0 HIT +0.69
MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Totals
Under
8.5 +135 +32.4% 11.0 MISS -1.00
SOCCER Minnesota United FC @ Sporting Kansas City
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +120 +10.0% 1.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings
Totals
Over
181.5 -105 +7.4% 172.0 MISS -1.00
MLB Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
Totals
Under
9.5 +150 +26.9% 11.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm
Total Points (Q2)
Over
44.5 -114 +3.2% 32.0 MISS -1.00
WC France @ Paraguay
Alternate Totals
Over
2.5 +120 +10.0% 1.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun
Dallas Wings
Moneyline (Q2)
+1200 +550.0% -2.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo
Isabelle Harrison
Player Points · Over
11.5 -108 +6.3% 26.0 HIT +0.93
MLB Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Team Totals · Under
4.5 +100 +2.3% 1.0 HIT +1.00
SOCCER San Diego FC @ Colorado Rapids
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.5 +105 +2.5% 0.0 MISS -1.00
WC Morocco @ France
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
1.0 +110 +5.0% 0.0 MISS -1.00
WNBA Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream
Awa Fam
Player Points · Over
12.5 +108 +4.0% 4.0 MISS -1.00
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Methodology

Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.

1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.

Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.