How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
5576
Bets settled
49.4%
Hit rate
-2.7%
ROI (units / bet)
-151.0
Total profit (units)
2.02
Avg decimal odds
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 3799 | 52.1% | +1.8% | +70.2 |
| WNBA | 1641 | 43.8% | -12.7% | -208.2 |
| WC | 108 | 43.5% | -3.9% | -4.2 |
| SOCCER | 26 | 30.8% | -34.6% | -9.0 |
| UFC | 2 | 50.0% | +2.5% | +0.1 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1286 | 51.2% | -2.1% | -27.2 |
| 3-5% EV | 1243 | 53.5% | +3.1% | +38.7 |
| 5-8% EV | 1365 | 50.4% | -1.7% | -23.0 |
| 8-12% EV | 563 | 46.9% | -7.2% | -40.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 1119 | 42.9% | -8.8% | -98.9 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty |
Azzi Fudd
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | +114 | +7.3% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC England @ France |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +132 | +16.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.32 |
| WC Cape Verde @ Argentina |
Draw
Moneyline
|
— | +650 | +559.5% | 0.0 | HIT | +6.50 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty |
Kayla McBride
Player Assists · Over
|
2.5 | +116 | +8.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC France @ Paraguay |
Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +106 | +3.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Nashville SC @ Orlando City SC |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +130 | +15.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ New York Liberty |
Total Points (Q3)
Over
|
45.5 | -102 | +8.9% | 45.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets |
Bo Bichette
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
1.5 | -110 | +2.7% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun |
Paige Bueckers
Player Assists · Over
|
5.5 | +124 | +17.0% | 7.0 | HIT | +1.24 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Totals
Over
|
182.5 | -102 | +8.9% | 198.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics |
Shakira Austin
Player Points+Rebounds · Over
|
22.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 22.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers |
Kyle Higashioka
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Over
|
0.5 | -123 | +2.1% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.81 |
| UFC Sam Patterson @ Santiago Ponzinibbio |
Totals
Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers |
Totals
Under
|
10.0 | -111 | +17.5% | 9.0 | HIT | +0.90 |
| WC Austria @ Algeria |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
2.0 | +112 | +7.1% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.12 |
| WNBA Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury |
Total Points (Q4)
Over
|
43.5 | -115 | +2.8% | 43.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Alec Bohm
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
2.5 | -155 | +6.3% | 2.0 | HIT | +0.65 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants |
Luis Arraez
Batter Hits · Under
|
1.5 | -164 | +4.0% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.61 |
| WNBA Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries |
Shakira Austin
Player Rebounds · Over
|
9.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 15.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals |
Cedric Mullins
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | +100 | +2.4% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +107 | +3.5% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers |
Detroit Tigers
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies |
Colorado Rockies
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +135 | +25.2% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.35 |
| UFC Adrian Yanez @ Cody Garbrandt |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER LA Galaxy @ San Jose Earthquakes |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +109 | +4.5% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Colorado Rapids @ St. Louis City SC |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +131 | +15.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics |
Washington Mystics
Team Totals · Over
|
76.5 | +105 | +12.8% | 49.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Allisha Gray
Player Assists · Under
|
2.5 | +146 | +23.8% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Sporting Kansas City @ St. Louis City SC |
Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals |
Philadelphia Phillies
Team Totals · Under
|
5.5 | -105 | +7.6% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Norway @ Ivory Coast |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +100 | +4.9% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| MLB Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians |
Cleveland Guardians
Team Totals · Over
|
2.5 | +220 | +66.6% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Courtney Vandersloot
Player Points · Over
|
9.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves |
New York Mets
Team Totals · Over
|
2.5 | +450 | +311.8% | 7.0 | HIT | +4.50 |
| SOCCER Portugal @ Colombia |
Both Teams to Score
No
|
— | +100 | +4.4% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Atlanta Dream
Team Totals · Over
|
92.5 | -107 | +6.4% | 76.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Croatia @ Portugal |
Totals
Under
|
3.5 | -556 | +3.1% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.18 |
| WC Austria @ Algeria |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
1.75 | +104 | +2.6% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
| WNBA Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Totals
Over
|
178.5 | -103 | +8.4% | 168.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics |
Allisha Gray
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | -102 | +3.1% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners |
Randy Arozarena
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +160 | +41.2% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.60 |
| MLB Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Totals
Over
|
13.5 | +115 | +7.5% | 16.0 | HIT | +1.15 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros |
Isaac Paredes
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
4.5 | -425 | +2.4% | 5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Argentina @ England |
Draw No Bet
Argentina
|
— | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx |
Totals
Over
|
174.5 | -105 | +7.4% | 194.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels |
Hao-Yu Lee
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -123 | +2.3% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.81 |
| SOCCER FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +115 | +7.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs |
Ivan Herrera
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +100 | +2.2% | 0.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals |
Bobby Witt Jr.
Batter Singles · Under
|
1.5 | -145 | +23.2% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.69 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
Totals
Under
|
8.5 | +135 | +32.4% | 11.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Minnesota United FC @ Sporting Kansas City |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Dallas Wings |
Totals
Over
|
181.5 | -105 | +7.4% | 172.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros |
Totals
Under
|
9.5 | +150 | +26.9% | 11.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm |
Total Points (Q2)
Over
|
44.5 | -114 | +3.2% | 32.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC France @ Paraguay |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun |
Dallas Wings
Moneyline (Q2)
|
— | +1200 | +550.0% | -2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Toronto Tempo |
Isabelle Harrison
Player Points · Over
|
11.5 | -108 | +6.3% | 26.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox |
Boston Red Sox
Team Totals · Under
|
4.5 | +100 | +2.3% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| SOCCER San Diego FC @ Colorado Rapids |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Morocco @ France |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.0 | +110 | +5.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream |
Awa Fam
Player Points · Over
|
12.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.