How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
12060
Bets settled
50.3%
Hit rate
-0.1%
ROI (units / bet)
-6.8
Total profit (units)
2.05
Avg decimal odds
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 7336 | 51.5% | +2.1% | +154.3 |
| WNBA | 2953 | 48.1% | -4.5% | -133.4 |
| NBA | 1703 | 49.6% | -1.2% | -20.1 |
| NHL | 58 | 44.8% | -9.0% | -5.2 |
| UFC | 10 | 40.0% | -23.5% | -2.4 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1846 | 51.9% | -1.9% | -35.0 |
| 3-5% EV | 2790 | 50.1% | -3.4% | -95.3 |
| 5-8% EV | 1993 | 51.7% | -0.3% | -5.7 |
| 8-12% EV | 1126 | 54.5% | +3.3% | +37.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 4305 | 48.0% | +2.1% | +91.7 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Jarren Duran
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | -101 | +5.0% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.99 |
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Kansas City Royals
Moneyline
|
— | +100 | +4.0% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm |
Kahleah Copper
Player 3-Pointers Made · Under
|
1.5 | +104 | +2.6% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks |
Player Shots on Goal
Over
|
1.5 | -106 | +2.9% | 2.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| UFC Juan Diaz @ Malcolm Wellmaker |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +125 | +14.8% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox |
Chicago White Sox
Team Totals · Over
|
0.5 | -154 | +55.8% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.65 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays |
Toronto Blue Jays
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +115 | +13.3% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.15 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians |
Tyler Stephenson
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +160 | +43.2% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Josh Manson
Player Shots on Goal · Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +4.0% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks |
Vegas Golden Knights
Team Totals · Under
|
4.5 | +200 | +62.5% | 5.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Mets @ San Diego Padres |
New York Mets
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +100 | +3.2% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights |
Carter Hart
Player Total Saves · Over
|
28.5 | -102 | +2.2% | 20.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants |
Totals
Under
|
4.5 | +101 | +7.2% | 7.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves |
Total Points (1st Half)
Under
|
112.0 | -105 | +11.7% | 135.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves |
Chris Sale
Pitcher Outs · Under
|
18.5 | -101 | +3.1% | 17.0 | HIT | +0.99 |
| WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx |
Total Points (1st Half)
Under
|
85.5 | +100 | +21.0% | 85.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury |
Cameron Brink
Player Points · Over
|
6.5 | +112 | +11.3% | 12.0 | HIT | +1.12 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Carolina Hurricanes
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +100 | +3.7% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Washington Mystics @ Seattle Storm |
Seattle Storm
Spread
|
3.5 | -102 | +7.2% | -14.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks |
New York Knicks
Moneyline (Q1)
|
— | -102 | +15.3% | -11.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Portland Fire |
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
Player Points · Over
|
10.5 | +100 | +2.6% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread
|
1.5 | +105 | +3.2% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Vegas Golden Knights
Team Totals · Under
|
2.5 | +100 | +3.9% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +135 | +42.3% | 9.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Las Vegas Aces |
Dominique Malonga
Player Points · Over
|
10.5 | -105 | +30.4% | 19.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays |
Toronto Blue Jays
Team Totals · Under
|
8.5 | -204 | +24.5% | 8.0 | HIT | +0.49 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury |
Total Points (Q2)
Over
|
42.5 | +100 | +16.8% | 50.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks |
Totals
Under
|
6.5 | +105 | +5.2% | 6.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Pavel Dorofeyev
Player Shots on Goal · Over
|
2.5 | -102 | +3.7% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Spread
|
23.5 | -105 | +2.3% | -30.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury |
Totals
Over
|
170.0 | -108 | +3.9% | 172.0 | HIT | +0.93 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Jarrett Allen
Player Rebounds · Under
|
8.5 | +115 | +52.1% | 10.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Carter Hart
Player Total Saves · Under
|
29.5 | +100 | +4.3% | 30.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Totals
Under
|
5.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
San Antonio Spurs
Spread (Q3)
|
1.5 | +120 | +16.4% | -4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Portland Fire |
Portland Fire
Spread
|
-8.5 | -103 | +5.5% | -20.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers |
Eric Haase
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | +105 | +3.1% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics |
Cameron Brink
Player Points · Over
|
9.5 | -102 | +2.5% | 16.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| MLB St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers |
Jackson Chourio
Batter Hits · Under
|
1.5 | -137 | +2.1% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.73 |
| MLB Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals |
Kansas City Royals
Team Totals · Under
|
4.5 | +110 | +8.6% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks |
New York Knicks
Spread (2nd Half)
|
-1.5 | +100 | +13.5% | -11.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Khaos Williams @ Nikolay Veretennikov |
Nikolay Veretennikov
Moneyline
|
— | +108 | +6.8% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Jakub Dobes
Player Total Saves · Over
|
28.5 | -108 | +2.2% | 26.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Trea Turner
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +320 | +129.9% | 1.0 | HIT | +3.20 |
| UFC Christian Edwards @ Modestas Bukauskas |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | -102 | +2.1% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.98 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Donovan Mitchell
Player Points · Under
|
20.5 | -102 | +3.9% | 26.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs |
Stephon Castle
Player Assists · Under
|
7.5 | -135 | +4.5% | 6.0 | HIT | +0.74 |
| UFC Carlston Harris @ Jake Matthews |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +120 | +10.2% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.20 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Connecticut Sun |
Totals
Under
|
171.0 | -108 | +3.7% | 195.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
Totals
Over
|
246.0 | -113 | +2.1% | 241.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Montréal Canadiens @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Totals
Over
|
7.5 | -170 | +10.1% | 8.0 | HIT | +0.59 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles |
Totals
Under
|
12.5 | -110 | +16.3% | 11.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| MLB Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds |
Totals
Under
|
7.5 | +104 | +3.1% | 16.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Mitchell Robinson
Player Points+Rebounds · Over
|
10.5 | +100 | +8.4% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights |
William Karlsson
Player Shots on Goal · Under
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.9% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever |
Jade Melbourne
Player Points · Over
|
9.5 | -103 | +3.9% | 12.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
Corbin Carroll
Batter Runs Scored · Under
|
0.5 | -119 | +4.2% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Jalen Brunson
Player Assists · Under
|
11.5 | +158 | +35.0% | 14.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder |
De'Aaron Fox
Player Assists · Under
|
10.5 | -115 | +3.2% | 8.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries |
Las Vegas Aces
Spread (Q3)
|
0.5 | -106 | +17.4% | 16.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| UFC Tom Nolan @ Fares Ziam |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +102 | +2.6% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks |
San Antonio Spurs
Team Totals · Over
|
113.5 | +100 | +5.5% | 115.0 | HIT | +1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever |
Jade Melbourne
Player Points · Under
|
9.5 | +100 | +3.0% | 12.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons |
Jarrett Allen
Player Rebounds · Over
|
6.5 | +130 | +28.8% | 10.0 | HIT | +1.30 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons |
Jarrett Allen
Player Points · Under
|
14.5 | -130 | +26.1% | 16.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Chelsea Chandler @ Priscila Cachoeira |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +105 | +5.1% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| NBA New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers |
Karl-Anthony Towns
Player Rebounds · Over
|
8.5 | -122 | +7.4% | 8.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Carolina Hurricanes |
Totals
Over
|
6.0 | +101 | +2.1% | 7.0 | HIT | +1.01 |
| NBA Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks |
Donovan Mitchell
Player Rebounds · Under
|
4.5 | +130 | +49.6% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.30 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers |
Mike Trout
Batter Runs Scored · Under
|
0.5 | -133 | +2.0% | 0.0 | HIT | +0.75 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins |
Josh Bell
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +110 | +49.6% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Toronto Tempo |
Toronto Tempo
Spread
|
4.5 | -107 | +5.2% | 21.0 | HIT | +0.94 |
| NBA Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers |
Total Points (1st Half)
Under
|
108.0 | -110 | +12.5% | 105.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| NHL Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights |
Mitch Marner
Player Shots on Goal · Over
|
1.5 | -137 | +7.0% | 10.0 | HIT | +0.73 |
| UFC Yuneisy Duben @ Jeisla Chaves |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.8% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty |
Kayla Thornton
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | +130 | +16.3% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Daniel Santos @ Dooho Choi |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +108 | +8.8% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury |
DeWanna Bonner
Player Rebounds · Under
|
6.5 | -105 | +2.4% | 5.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA New York Liberty @ Portland Fire |
Portland Fire
Spread (Q4)
|
-2.5 | -102 | +18.2% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Toronto Tempo @ Minnesota Lynx |
Kayla McBride
Player 3-Pointers Made · Under
|
2.5 | +104 | +7.5% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
| NBA Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs |
San Antonio Spurs
Team Totals · Over
|
113.5 | +123 | +12.9% | 108.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| NHL Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche |
Colorado Avalanche
Team Totals · Over
|
3.5 | +110 | +6.7% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros |
Zach Cole
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | +200 | +50.4% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves |
Chicago Cubs
Spread
|
-1.0 | +118 | +15.8% | -3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Christian Edwards @ Modestas Bukauskas |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | -102 | +2.7% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| UFC Jacqueline Cavalcanti @ Ketlen Vieira |
Ketlen Vieira
Moneyline
|
— | -238 | +2.3% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.42 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty |
Totals
Over
|
166.5 | -105 | +5.9% | 157.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.