How the model has actually performed
Every settled pick from the last 30 days at 2%+ EV. Wins and losses both included.
5571
Bets settled
49.4%
Hit rate
-2.7%
ROI (units / bet)
-149.6
Total profit (units)
2.02
Avg decimal odds
By sport
| Sport | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 3794 | 52.2% | +1.9% | +71.6 |
| WNBA | 1641 | 43.8% | -12.7% | -208.2 |
| WC | 108 | 43.5% | -3.9% | -4.2 |
| SOCCER | 26 | 30.8% | -34.6% | -9.0 |
| UFC | 2 | 50.0% | +2.5% | +0.1 |
By predicted EV at capture
Higher predicted EV should produce higher actual ROI if the model is calibrated.
| EV bucket | Bets | Hit rate | ROI | Profit (units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3% EV | 1287 | 51.2% | -2.0% | -26.2 |
| 3-5% EV | 1239 | 53.4% | +3.0% | +37.0 |
| 5-8% EV | 1362 | 50.5% | -1.5% | -20.0 |
| 8-12% EV | 564 | 46.8% | -7.4% | -41.6 |
| 12%+ EV | 1119 | 42.9% | -8.8% | -98.9 |
Cumulative profit (last 30 days)
Sample of settled picks
A random sample of recently settled picks — up to 10 game lines and 10 player props per sport — to show the breadth of what the model recommends. The Actual column shows the player's real stat (or final margin / score), verifiable against any box score. Scroll inside the table to scan the full sample.
| Game | Pick | Line | Odds | EV | Actual | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Phoenix Mercury |
Flau'jae Johnson
Player Rebounds · Under
|
5.5 | -139 | +4.1% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.72 |
| SOCCER Seattle Sounders FC @ Philadelphia Union |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +136 | +18.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees |
Mike Paredes
Pitcher Walks · Under
|
1.5 | +105 | +3.6% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty |
Breanna Stewart
Player Points · Over
|
19.5 | +102 | +2.1% | 25.0 | HIT | +1.02 |
| SOCCER FC Dallas @ San Diego FC |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Portland Fire |
Totals
Over
|
177.0 | -110 | +5.0% | 198.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| SOCCER Colorado Rapids @ St. Louis City SC |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +107 | +3.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Connecticut Sun @ Minnesota Lynx |
Kayla McBride
Player Assists · Over
|
3.5 | +135 | +17.5% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Austria @ Algeria |
Totals
Under
|
2.25 | -104 | +2.6% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty |
Nia Coffey
Player 3-Pointers Made · Over
|
1.5 | +115 | +7.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC England @ Mexico |
Both Teams to Score
No
|
— | +125 | +17.2% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Norway @ Ivory Coast |
Totals
Under
|
2.5 | +100 | +4.4% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER St. Louis City SC @ LA Galaxy |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +125 | +12.5% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.25 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees |
Pittsburgh Pirates
Moneyline
|
— | +106 | +3.0% | -3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals |
Junior Caminero
Batter Total Bases · Under
|
5.5 | -115 | +44.4% | 4.0 | HIT | +0.87 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Portland Fire |
Las Vegas Aces
Spread (Q1)
|
-3.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| SOCCER Atlanta United FC @ Charlotte FC |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +112 | +6.0% | 4.0 | HIT | +1.12 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Toronto Tempo |
Isabelle Harrison
Player Points · Over
|
13.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 24.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins |
Los Angeles Angels
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 4.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Minnesota United FC @ Sporting Kansas City |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +120 | +10.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Konnor Griffin
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -140 | +4.3% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
90.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 115.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| WC Argentina @ England |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.0 | +140 | +20.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees |
Ben Rice
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs · Under
|
1.5 | +111 | +7.6% | 1.0 | HIT | +1.11 |
| UFC Adrian Yanez @ Cody Garbrandt |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC France @ Paraguay |
Totals
Over
|
3.0 | +106 | +3.0% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Egypt @ Argentina |
Egypt
Moneyline
|
— | +1800 | +1330.0% | -1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers |
Detroit Tigers
Team Totals · Under
|
5.5 | +110 | +23.7% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.10 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Joey Ortiz
Batter Total Bases · Over
|
0.5 | -120 | +2.5% | 1.0 | HIT | +0.83 |
| WC Japan @ Brazil |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +106 | +7.2% | 3.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| UFC Sam Patterson @ Santiago Ponzinibbio |
Totals
Over
|
1.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 2.0 | HIT | +1.05 |
| MLB Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies |
Andy Pages
Batter Singles · Under
|
0.5 | +100 | +5.6% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates |
Robert Gasser
Pitcher Outs · Under
|
17.5 | +106 | +10.1% | 9.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| MLB Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers |
Totals
Over
|
8.5 | +170 | +39.1% | 9.0 | HIT | +1.70 |
| WNBA Minnesota Lynx @ Seattle Storm |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
89.5 | -110 | +5.0% | 107.0 | HIT | +0.91 |
| WNBA Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm |
Seattle Storm
Team Totals · Over
|
88.5 | +128 | +25.4% | 72.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER CF Montreal @ Nashville SC |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +130 | +15.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics |
Shakira Austin
Player Rebounds · Over
|
8.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 11.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| WC England @ France |
Alternate Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +114 | +7.0% | 10.0 | HIT | +1.14 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces |
Totals
Over
|
182.0 | -108 | +5.9% | 152.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves |
Atlanta Braves
Team Totals · Under
|
6.5 | +110 | +37.4% | 9.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies |
Colorado Rockies
Team Totals · Under
|
7.5 | -125 | +14.9% | 7.0 | HIT | +0.80 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros |
Tampa Bay Rays
Team Totals · Over
|
4.5 | +105 | +2.5% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Egypt @ Argentina |
Totals
Over
|
2.5 | +170 | +44.1% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.70 |
| SOCCER FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +115 | +7.5% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces |
Totals
Over
|
169.5 | -113 | +3.7% | 152.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers |
Logan Henderson
Pitcher Hits Allowed · Under
|
4.5 | -135 | +2.4% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.74 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Los Angeles Sparks |
Zia Cooke
Player Points · Over
|
6.5 | +104 | +2.0% | 7.0 | HIT | +1.04 |
| MLB Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | -105 | +2.3% | 14.0 | HIT | +0.95 |
| WNBA Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics |
Veronica Burton
Player Assists · Over
|
5.5 | +116 | +8.0% | 3.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WC Colombia @ Switzerland |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
0.5 | +110 | +5.0% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| MLB Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks |
Totals
Over
|
9.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 11.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| WNBA Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury |
Totals
Over
|
142.5 | +130 | +26.5% | 143.0 | HIT | +1.30 |
| MLB Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers |
Evan Carter
Batter Hits · Over
|
0.5 | -108 | +3.2% | 0.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Toronto Tempo |
Jessica Shepard
Player Assists · Under
|
5.5 | -104 | +4.8% | 3.0 | HIT | +0.96 |
| MLB San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs |
Matthew Boyd
Pitcher Strikeouts · Over
|
3.5 | -110 | +18.0% | 2.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Las Vegas Aces @ Chicago Sky |
Totals
Over
|
179.5 | -103 | +14.9% | 206.0 | HIT | +0.97 |
| WNBA Dallas Wings @ Connecticut Sun |
Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Player Rebounds · Over
|
6.5 | +108 | +4.0% | 8.0 | HIT | +1.08 |
| MLB New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves |
Atlanta Braves
Team Totals · Under
|
5.5 | +110 | +22.3% | 6.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| WNBA Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream |
Totals
Over
|
167.5 | -106 | +6.9% | 167.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
| SOCCER Sporting Kansas City @ St. Louis City SC |
Totals
Over
|
3.5 | +106 | +3.0% | 5.0 | HIT | +1.06 |
| WC Sweden @ France |
Total Points (1st Half)
Over
|
1.5 | +110 | +15.7% | 1.0 | MISS | -1.00 |
Methodology
Every pick is auto-logged when we recommend it; the outcome is pulled from the official box score after the game ends. No cherry-picking — wins and losses both shown.
1 unit per bet at the best available American odds at pick time. Settled hits and misses only; pushes and voids return the stake and are excluded. Last 30 days at 2%+ predicted EV. ROI = total profit ÷ total bets. Structural near-lock markets (HR Under, SB Under, triple-double Under, first-basket, etc.) are excluded — the math counts them as +EV but no real bettor takes them.
Variance is real — even a profitable system has multi-week downswings. Sign up free to read the picks before they settle.